UFC on FX 4 Bettor’s Guide

UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida comes at you Friday night, and is the first of back-to-back shows for the UFC, along with Saturday night’s UFC 147. There is an unofficial contender’s match in the main event, and a main card set up for fireworks, including a native Texan in TJ Waldburger. The prelims will be broadcast on Facebook and Fuel TV, while the main card will, obviously, be shown on FX. A brief preview and betting analysis of each fight is below.

PRELIMS (FACEBOOK)

Dustin Pague (-155) vs. Ken Stone (+125)

Pague is stepping into the octagon for the second time in just two weeks, as he fills in for Francisco Rivera on just 6 days notice. He got a quick finish against Jared Papazian at UFC on FX 3, and will look to carry that momentum against Ken Stone. Stone got his first UFC win back in September against Donny Walker. This fight should last longer than Pague’s last one, but the result will still be Pague taking a win. PAGUE DEF. STONE BY DECISION

Dan Miller (-500) vs. Ricardo Funch (+350)

Not sure what to say about this fight other than the line is right on. Dan Miller should be able to dictate where this fight happens, and will probably spend the majority of the fight on top of Funch either pounding him or working for a submission. Expect domination. MILLER DEF. STONE BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)

PRELIMS (FUEL TV)

Matt Brown (-165) vs. Luis Ramos (+135)

We don’t know too much about Ramos, as he drew Erick Silva for his first fight with the UFC. That bludgeoning lasted only :40 seconds. I doubt that Brown flies through the Nova Uniao product, but he will not make it easy. Brown just killed the hype of Steven “Wonderboy” Thompson back at UFC 145, and will look to carry on with that momentum. I think Ramos uses his submission game to catch Brown late in the second. RAMOS DEF. BROWN BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)

Nick Catone (-225) vs. Chris Camozzi (+175)

Catone has not been in action in 15 months, while Camozzi has been alternating wins and losses in his last 5 fights. It’s his turn for a loss, and Catone’s wrestling is probably the recipe for just that. Look for this to be a drawn out affair that isn’t the most exciting, but should play right into Catone’s game plan. CATONE DEF. CAMOZZI BY DECISION

Rick Story (-365) vs. Brock Jardine (+275)

Rick Story is looking to get back in the win column after back-to-back losses against Charlie Brenneman and Martin Kampmann. Jardine is an interesting prospect, who is 9-1 in smaller organizations. He has a very good wrestling pedigree and carries some knockout power. The jump in competition will be too much for Jardine though, as Story pounds him out late in the fight. STORY DEF. JARDINE BY TKO (RD 3)

Joey Gambino (-135) vs. Steven Siler (+105)

Gambino is a finishing machine who has made a good run through smaller organizations on his way to a 9-0 mark. Siler is a submission expert in his own right who just got the biggest win of his career over Cole Miller. Gambino is a product of Georges St. Pierre’s Tri-Star gym, and they have been on a roll lately. This is a coin toss fight, and mine is landing on Gambino this time. GAMBINO DEF. SILER BY DECISION

Ramsey Nijem (-185) vs. C.J. Keith (+150)

Keith is an unbeaten prospect making his UFC debut. Unfortunately for him he will run into Nijem, who uses his dominant wrestling to control opponents and offset his poor striking. Expect a wrestling clinic from Nijem en route to his second UFC victory. NIJEM DEF. KEITH BY DECISION

Hatsu Hioki (-200) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+160)

It was expected that Hioki would be preparing to take on Jose Aldo by now, but instead he will have to go through Lamas first. He has looked very good in his first two UFC fights, but Hioki will duck under the strikes and get takedowns to control the fight on the ground en route to an efficient, if not dominating victory. HIOKI DEF. LAMAS BY DECISION

MAIN CARD (FX)

Brian Ebersole (-235) vs. TJ Waldburger (+185)

In a matchup of wrestler versus submission expert, Ebersole has a big advantage in experience. He boasts a 10-fight win streak overall, and has taken all three of his fights in the UFC, including a TKO win over Dennis Hallman and a unanimous decision nod over Chris Lytle. Texas native Waldburger has gotten 12 of his 15 wins by submission, and Ebersole has tapped out in 9 of his 14 losses. This is a good value play on Waldburger, whose lone loss in the UFC came via first round knockout to top 5 welterweight Johny Hendricks.WALDBURGER DEF. EBERSOLE BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)

Ross Pearson (-190) vs. Cub Swanson (+155)

This should be a really fun fight, as these two featherweights both love to stand and strike. While Swanson probably wields more KO power, Pearson is an outstanding technical boxer, and should do enough to pick Swanson apart. If anyone has an advantage on the ground, it is probably Swanson, but I don’t imagine it gets there. If it does, it is probably too late.PEARSON DEF. SWANSON BY DECISION

Sam Stout (-335) vs. Spencer Fisher (+255)

In a fight that has little bearing on the landscape of the lightweight division, Stout and Fisher will meet again in a rubber match from their fights in 2006 (Stout) and 2007 (Fisher). Fisher has lost 4 of his last 5, and a loss here would surely spell the end of his UFC tenure. Stout refuses to let his momentum build too much, never getting more than two UFC wins in a row. His most recent fight saw him outpointed by Thiago Tavares in January. Look for Stout to take advantage of the slowed hands of the 36 year-old Fisher, as he works his way to a fun, albeit not as fun as the first two, decision victory. STOUT DEF. FISHER BY DECISION

Gray Maynard (-315) vs. Clay Guida (+245)

The main event features two top lightweights coming off losses. Maynard has not fought since he lost a title shot against Frank Edgar in Houston, while Guida’s last bout was a decision loss in a title eliminator to Benson Henderson. While both have great wrestling in their own right, it is hard to picture the smallish Guida being able to hold down the monstrous Maynard. Guida will be a little quicker in scrambles, and if the fight goes long it may lean Guida’s way. That said, I think Maynard does enough in the early rounds to pull off the decision victory. MAYNARD DEF. GUIDA BY DECISION

SAFEST PICKS: HIOKI, NIJEM, MILLER, STORY

RISKIEST PICKS: MAYNARD, WALDBURGER, GAMBINO, PAGUE

CONSERVATIVE PARLAY: HIOKI, CATONE, NIJEM, MILLER- PAYS 3/1

MODERATE PARLAY: NIJEM, HIOKI, GAMBINO, RAMOS- PAYS 17/2

AGGRESSIVE PARLAY: GAMBINO, WALDBURGER, RAMOS, PEARSON- PAYS 17/1